Has the Recession Ended?

Alright. So, the official US Umemployment figures are showing signs of improvement in the job market. What was at 9.5% is now at 9.4% – which is good, for an economy desperate for some fresh air.

But is this really an improvement at the heart of hearts? Has the recession ended? Has growth returned yet? Well, these may be questions that would be answered as the economy takes its own course. True, IT companies have fared well this quarter, the chips are up, cars have started moving out of showrooms and further stimuli are ready to be loaded for deployment.

But a marginal decline in joblessness is nothing more than a good sign. What is required is substantial improvement in indicators – and fundamentals. Unemployment at almost 10% is quite a deal. The consumer has to walk into the stores and open up his wallet. The temperature may be back to normal – but the immune system is still not at its best. Let’s give it some more time, shall we?